by Jamil Chade
Brazilian military officers are alarmed at the prospect of a Flávio Bolsonaro victory in the presidential election. A nationalist wing of the military fears that a strategic alignment with the United States could weaken the armed forces and subordinate them to American national interests. Above all, they fear a negative impact on Brazil’s military industry.
In recent months, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro has signaled that, if he wins, he will adopt a foreign policy consistent with Donald Trump’s plans to control Latin America. He has also signaled that he would offer the U.S. State Department a role on his transition team. Nothing like that has been seen since Brazil’s return to democracy.
Generals and senior officers told ICL Notícias that the concern within the armed forces is real. They worry about what a Bolsonaro presidency could mean for national defense doctrine and for U.S. access to sensitive information about Brazil. The concern unites two groups inside the barracks. One is the more progressive officers, who are fewer in number. The other is the nationalist and conservative wing, which for decades operated on the basis of a national development project.
The “orphans” of the coup movement may still exist, and they may be active in military WhatsApp groups. Even so, generals and other officers have made no public comment on the 2026 election, and that silence has been seen as a positive sign.
One concern circulating in conversations among officers involves Bolsonaro’s promise to join Trump’s plan to use armed forces against drug trafficking. The Liberal Party candidate has already announced that he will join the Shield of the Americas, a military alliance created by the United States ostensibly to fight drug trafficking.
For these officers, using the armed forces against drug trafficking pulls their focus away from national defense and from control of Brazil’s borders and territory. In the medium and long term, they say, it would weaken the country’s defense capabilities.
Another fear is that, under a joint action agreement between the American and Brazilian militaries, the U.S. government would gain access to strategic locations in the country. One is the Amazon, where both the First Capital Command (PCC) and the Red Command operate. If elected, Bolsonaro has signaled that he will grant the U.S. request and recognize these groups as terrorist entities.
In the U.S. government, that designation allows every weapon and legal power to be used against such groups. At the U.N. General Assembly, Trump himself declared that organized crime would receive the same kind of treatment the United States gave the Islamic State.
A map published recently by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, one of the world’s leading military research centers, is circulating among officers. It shows the presence of the PCC and the Red Command in the Amazon.
What officers are trying to understand is what this new American doctrine, embraced by Flávio Bolsonaro, would mean for Brazilian territory itself.
Defense Industry
Brazilian military officers are also concerned about what closer ties between Flávio Bolsonaro and Trump could mean for the country’s defense industry. Brazil’s generals consider that industry strategic. They fear it could be made to serve the interests of the White House. Washington could decide what Brazil produces. It could steer purchases to strengthen the American industry. Or it could simply turn Brazilian factories into suppliers of ammunition and other equipment for U.S. forces around the world. In that case, the national interest would not be the priority.
The military’s view is that talking about sovereignty without a national industry would be “fiction.”
A study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that Brazil spent $23.9 billion on defense in 2025. About 130 Brazilian companies now export defense products to roughly 150 countries. If Trump controlled Brazil’s defense and foreign policy, the military believes he could also control the direction of investment in the national industry.
Jamil Chade is a Brazilian journalist who has been to more than 70 countries. He has crossed borders with refugees, witnessed crimes against humanity, traveled with popes and covered diplomatic summits. Chade has been named a finalist for the Jabuti Prize four times. He is an ambassador for the Adus Institute and a board member of the Vladimir Herzog Institute. He was also one of the researchers for the National Truth Commission, which investigated torture and assassinations during the military dictatorship. His work has appeared in publications including Estado de S. Paulo, El Pais and UOL.
This article original appeared in ICL, was translated by Panamerican Dispatch, and can be read in its original Portuguese here.