by Jamil Chade
The administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is betting on a Democratic victory in the legislative elections to counterbalance Donald Trump’s influence in the region. Trump has been expanding his reach in Latin America under his second term, and interfering in Brazilian affairs.
The hope within Brazil’s Foreign Ministry is that, by securing a majority in the U.S. Congress, the Democrats could act as a “brake” on the Republican’s offensives and Trump’s destabilizing actions in the region, through a policy that has become known as the “Donroe Doctrine.”
U.S., Mexican, Ecuadorian, Colombian, and Panamanian ships conduct training exercises during PANAMAX 2026 on the Pacific Ocean near Panama, Aug. 7, 2026. (Petty Officer 3rd Class William / U.S. Southern Command)
Since 2025, Brazil has faced various U.S. measures against it, including sanctions, tariffs, and the U.S.-supported escape of Flávio Bolsonaro.
In recent months, however, both the Brazilian government and independent actors have cultivated close ties with Democratic senators and representatives, seeking to build an alliance to shine light on the violations committed under Trump.
The ultimate goal is to ensure that, from 2027 onward, Lula has more room to pursue an independent foreign policy, both in dealings with major global powers and in establishing pragmatic channels with other Latin American governments.
Democrats have issued at least ten statements and letters challenging the White House over its disruptive behavior in Brazil, including actions taken during the country’s electoral process.
Behind the scenes, progressive lawmakers and observers have traveled to Washington to brief U.S. members of Congress on the situation in Brazil.
Whenever Lula has visited the United States, he has also made a point of meeting with some of these representatives. In September, for instance, he dedicated part of his schedule to meetings with Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Just last week, nearly 30 Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanding an explanation regarding the Trump administration’s potential role in Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight to the United States.
Until now, however, Democrats have been in the minority in the U.S. Congress. This meant that, despite their pressure, they lacked the votes necessary to establish investigative committees or translate their grievances into concrete actions against Trump.
A different scenario could emerge moving forward, should they win the election. It is possible, for example, that the case of Flávio Bolsonaro’s departure could become the subject of an investigative committee. Democrats want to understand why Trump granted a humanitarian visa to Bolsonaro, while simultaneously suspending such access for over 500,000 people fleeing war-torn countries.
The Brazilian government also anticipates that a Democratic majority could serve as a check on Trump’s global trade policies. Under U.S. rules, trade policy is the prerogative of Congress. Trump had managed to circumvent this reality by declaring a “national emergency.” Once that mechanism was exhausted, he concocted spurious investigations into dozens of foreign governments to justify his tariffs.
International observers hope that, with a Democratic majority in Congress, the political cost to Trump for certain decisions would increase.
Within the Lula administration, there is an expectation that a Democratic victory could lead to a shift in the bilateral relationship. There is an alignment of agendas: Brazil seeks to curb U.S. encroachment in the region, while Democrats aim to use Trump’s diplomatic proposals as an example of the dangerous path his foreign policy has taken. With a new balance of power, Lula hopes to establish a pragmatic relationship with the White House. The prevailing view in Brasília is that the United States is an “unavoidable” partner and that the best course for national diplomacy is to seek common ground in areas of shared interest.
Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira are expected to meet in December to assess the bilateral agenda. Lula is also set to attend the G20 summit, and the possibility of a meeting between Trump and the Brazilian president cannot be ruled out.
This article was originally published by ICL Noticias. It was translated by Panamerican Dispatch. You can read it, in its original Portuguese, here.