by Otávio Rosso
Allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were caught off guard by the outcome of the presidential election’s first round, in which Flávio Bolsonaro edged out Lula. Internal polling had picked up on growing support for the right in the campaign’s final days. Even so, people close to Lula had still expected him to come out ahead, even by a small margin, heading into Sunday’s vote.
Lula addresses his followers after the final results were announced last night (Ricardo Stuckert)
According to CNN Brasil, campaign insiders said privately that the result landed as a bigger setback than they had anticipated. One Lula ally described it simply as a “blow.”
With all votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the vote. Lula took 45.16%. That gap put the senator in the lead after the first round. It also forced Lula’s campaign to rethink its strategy for the runoff.
Lula’s campaign has pointed to two factors behind the disruption to its final stretch. One is the crisis surrounding the Supreme Federal Court. The other is leaked information about investigations into Banco Master and fraud at Brazil’s National Social Security Institute.
People inside Lula’s campaign headquarters say these episodes dominated political debate. They also got in the way of the campaign’s planned strategy, which was built around contrasting Lula’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s political records.
Campaign insiders believe these crises threw the race into disarray. They kept that direct contrast from landing with the force the campaign had hoped for before the vote. Heading into the runoff, the campaign plans to reverse that dynamic. The goal now is to refocus the race squarely on comparing Lula and Flávio.
After the result was confirmed, Lula acknowledged his frustration. But he quickly worked to rally his supporters for the decisive round ahead. He expressed confidence about facing the senator head on. He also renewed his push to drive down abstention.
“People like it when I compete in a runoff. I’m very good in a head to head fight,” Lula said after the votes were counted.
The campaign sees one path to overcoming Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead clearly: mobilizing voters who stayed home in the first round which, at 21%, represents the highest level of abstention in a Brazilian presidential election in 28 years. The weaker than expected result is also likely to prompt changes. Expect shifts in the president’s messaging and political strategy over the coming weeks.
Lula is scheduled to meet with allies in Brasília on Monday to discuss a strategy for the runoff. The meeting had already been planned. It is part of the campaign’s regular start of week sessions. But it has taken on added weight in light of Sunday’s result.
This article originally ran in Brasil 247, has been translated by Panamerican Dispatch, and can be read in its original Portuguese here.