by Pepe Escobar
It don’t mean a thing if it ain’t got that Brazilian swing. The stakes couldn’t be higher: a matter of do or die. So Brazilians hit the streets and the polling stations and managed to pull it off.
Partial view of the largest political rally in São Paulo history, on October 24, 2026 (photo:Ricardo Stuckert)
They did nothing less than tame the Mother of All Hybrid Wars and defeat, even momentarily, a powerful, toxic coalition including the full force of the “Donroe Doctrine” administration; Silicon Valley techno-feudalism, especially deployed by Meta; Wall Street and the Goddess of the Market; the multiple tentacles of Zionism Inc.; the old reactionary elites – and their media; the new bling-bling elites; the evangelical dementia; and last but not least, a mediocre neo-fascist dynasty bent on converting Brazil into an extractivist neo-colony to the benefit of His Master’s Voice.
The soothing effect is similar to an Antônio Carlos Jobim bossa nova anthem sung by Frank Sinatra. Yes, Brazil is too big and too wild to be anyone’s backyard. And what a turnaround, when it comes to Lula personally: geopolitics hasn’t seen a comeback like this since the Battle of Stalingrad.
We Lost: So the Election Was “Rigged”
Election Day dawned in nail-biting territory, but with Flávio Bolsonaro still given an 82% chance of winning according to DARPA darlings Polymarket. It’s as if the Deep State knew the result in advance, just like in the first round of voting.
Yet in the end, Lula won by 4.4 million votes. Not without plenty of drama. Just before the polls closed, a Supreme Court justice, who was formerly Lula’s defense lawyer during the Car Wash corruption case, extended voting nationwide by two hours. The electoral court should have ruled on this. It didn’t because another Supreme Court justice, who was appointed by Bolsonaro, was dragging his feet.
The extension was vital because by then it had already been proven that bolsonarista mayors were deliberately hobbling public transport, especially buses, in Lula strongholds like Salvador in Bahia: a tactic straight from the oligarchic sabotage playbook, used to suppress the popular vote.
The key fact is that both campaigns had asked for a voting extension. And that completely undercuts claims by bolsonarista and MAGA-linked twats that the election was “rigged.”
Predictably, Flávio Bolsonaro is refusing to concede and wants the election annulled. That won’t happen, according to the same Bolsonaro-appointed justice who was dragging his feet in the first place.
In the second round, Lula increased his vote total by over 10.4 million votes, while Bolsonaro got only 3.6 million more. Add to that a near improbability: there were over 1.8 million fewer (italics mine) null and void ballots compared to the first round, and the overwhelming majority went to Lula.
Several reasons explain the performance by the Comeback Kid (or Grandpa). Starting with massive popular mobilization: abstention fell from 21.08% to 19.21%. Nearly 3 million more people showed up at the polls.
Lula expanded his margin in the Northeast, where he was strong, and reduced his losses in the wealthy Southeast.
Lula’s campaign deployed serious self-correction: instead of focusing on the past he started talking about the dire, present reality: family economics; huge levels of indebtedness; the cost of living; salaries; and even advanced concrete proposals for the next four years.
The digital mobilization campaign was something to see, complete with a lethal weapon unleashed on WhatsApp: the “Lula’s Army” channel, which went from about 50,000 followers to a whopping 10 million in less than three weeks: a de facto digital infantry.
Spearheaded by newly elected Congressman André Janones, the campaign showed how Lula beat techno-feudalist hegemon Meta at its own game: the strategy will be studied in the annals of political science for generations.
And then there’s Flávio Bolsonaro’s stunning incompetence – a deadly mix of arrogance and ignorance which simply could not be sold as a moderate alternative.
Only two days before the runoff, during the last, crucial debate, Bolsonaro, live, in front of the whole nation and millions of undecided voters, mocked Lula’s disability, calling him “the 9 fingers”.
Lula crafted the blowback in real time like a cobra. He recalled how he lost his pinkie at 17 in a metalworking press, a victim of the precarity and lack of safety that millions of workers in Brazil endure: “Something very different from you, Bolsonaro, who have never worked a real job in your life.”
That sealed it: the lost pinkie as the definitive symbol of dignity in the face of privilege.
This is gonna get very ugly
Governing Brazil will be a Sisyphean task for Lula’s fourth term. The Senate (81 seats) is controlled by the extreme right (48 seats): an absolute majority. In Congress, the extreme right has 303 seats (way above the majority at 257), the center has 86 seats, and the left only 124 seats. Any reform, budget, or law will face an Iron Wall.
Arguably the best definition of Lula was once offered by the late great El Comandante, Fidel Castro:
“He was never a leftist extremist, nor did he rise to the status of revolutionary from philosophical positions, but from those of a worker of very humble origin and Christian faith, who worked hard creating surplus value for others.”
In sum, Lula may be characterized as personifying a Catholic, traditional, Lusophone-mestizo and progressive Brazil.
Lula, now in his eighties, seems to have recovered that spark. There’s no question he knows very well how this massive defeat for Trump, MAGA and the Donroe Doctrine will force him to summon all of his powers – to organize Brazil while containing the out-of-control fury of the Empire.
Whatever the results in the US midterms next week, Trump will inevitably ramp up sanctions and/or tariffs against Brazil and will continue to pull out all the stops and launch dirty operations to destabilize the country. The CIA and the Deep State are deeply enmeshed in the Brazilian reality and able to unleash an unlimited bag of dirty tricks.
Lula knows: this will get very ugly.
This article originally appeared in Pepe Escobar’s blog, Geopolitics Prime, was copy edited slightly for readability, and can be read in its original form here.
Hey Pepe, are you that Escobar?!